Wednesday Interview: Natalie Davis Discusses Bright Blue Dots in Really Red States
In light of last weekend's Values Voters Summit, we think it's a good idea to dig a little further into what is going on in the breeding ground of the average Christian Conservative - typically a white, southern, Republican voter. So we went straight to the source - Prof. Natalie Davis, professor of political science at Birmingham-Southern College in Birmingham, Alabama. Prof. Davis is well-versed in Southern politics and is a public opinion expert, and she can explain to us exactly what's happening below the Mason-Dixon line... and how the times, they are a-changin.
Veracifier: Tom Schaller (Whistling Past Dixie) argues that the Democrats should ignore the South when it comes to the '08 Election - that it's just lost territory and those resources could be better spent elsewhere. Do you think this makes sense? What kind of fallout would there be for local Democrats - and maybe middle-of-the-road Southern voters?
Davis: For the most part, the South has been ignored by all candidates, except for the fundraising potential of states like Alabama. Alabama is a political ATM for both Democrats and Republicans. There are a few deep South states like Arkansas and Louisiana, which might be in play, but realistically, Democrats would best focus attention on the upper Midwest and the West. While there is evidence that many states may be viewed as "purple," I believe this is illusory in this Presidential cycle. [I assume we're not talking about Florida, which cannot be ignored and which is winnable for either party.]
Veracifier: As someone on a college campus in the South, are there any active Democratic student associations? Do they ever feel ignored by the Right majority? What's the political feeling on campus? [Full disclosure: When I lived in Birmingham, you couldn't throw a stone without hitting at least one car or pick-up with that infamous black-box bumper sticker, "W The President." There were a brave few who sported the "M for Moron" version.]
Davis: I think if you drove through Birmingham today, you'd find very few "W" stickers and many "BLUE DOTS". It's pretty dramatic. I think there is a slight increase in the number of Democrats on campus. On the Birmingham-Southern College campus, The College Democrats seem to be alive and well. This group has been active for a number of years. Presidential campaigns always bring out students, so this will go on for another year at least. If I were guessing, I'd say that the campus is 60-40 Republicans to Democrats; a few years ago, I would have put the ratio at 70-30. The war in Iraq accounts for much of the change.
Veracifier: Do you think that Christian conservative voters in the South might split off from the GOP and vote for a third party candidate if Giuliani is given the bid?
Davis: Third party candidates rarely do well in the South (with the exception of George Wallace). For example, Ross Perot only received about 9 percent of the vote in Alabama in 1992. There are a couple of reasons for this--Southerners are conventional and conformist (remember, for a long time they only voted for one party) and second, third party candidates are less known. Our voters are not well-informed, so they are less likely to know about third party candidates. There is a disconnect here - the religious Right is strong in the South, so the ground is fertile for a third party; yet, Southerners are least likely to vote for a third party candidate. So, if there are those who believe that a religious Right candidate, running as a third party candidate, could come in and split the Republican vote such that a Democrat could win, I'd say that would be wishful thinking. Democrats should not build a strategy based on waiting for Republicans to mess up.
And in reality, the GOP knows they can't afford to mess up in the South. But the Christian conservatives have made their voices known... they don't want a Giuliani president. But what hope might a Giuliani-Huckabee ticket hold?Giuliani, election 08, 2008, Republicans, values voters, natalie davis, christian conservative, brite blue dot, bright blue dot, dixie
