Before I get started I would like to introduce myself: My name is Steve Dennis and I live in the small town of Kingston in southern New Hampshire. I was asked to cover the New Hampshire primary,  so here I am. This will be Part One of my coverage, with Part Two coming after the New Hampshire results are in.  In the interest of full disclosure, I will be voting in the Republican primary, so while I have followed that race more closely, I will try to give an unbiased opinion. 

 

New Hampshire takes being the first primary in the nation very seriously; it is our thing, so to speak. New Hampshire residents and politicians enjoy the time in the national spotlight. It's not often we find ourselves here, so there is a sort of electricity in the air.

 

Voter turnout is expected to be at record highs for the primary - in contrast to the 2006 elections, at least for Republican voters. The Democratic turnout for the 2006 elections was about average, but the Republicans stayed home in an attempt to teach the politicians a lesson. Republican voters are now expected to turn out in heavy numbers because of their disatisfaction with the Democratic majority in congress, as well as the direction in which New Hampshire has gone.  Democrats are expected to come out in record numbers because, well frankly, they have been waiting for this day since 2004.  They sent a message in 2006, and now they hope to return to the White House. 

 

Early speculation has voter turnout projected at 85 percent. The mood of the voters appears to be upbeat and enthusiastic, and I think both parties are ready to move on and are excited about the future.

 

Sunday's poll numbers, the latest before the primary, have just been turned in. Of the many reports that are out, two of them, Rasmussen and ARG, have Obama pulling into the lead by 12 points - having received a major bump from the Iowa caucuses.  I have been following the CNN/WMUR poll for months now, which I find a more reliable view.  Its latest results:

 

Barack Obama 34%

Hillary Clinton 33%

John Edwards 20%

Bill Richardson 4%

Dennis Kucinich 3%

 

During the summer, Hillary had a commanding lead of 25 points which began to evaporate after that infamous debate in which she awkwardly tried to take both sides on the issue of handing out driver's licenses for illegal immigrants.  Whatever comfort she enjoyed after that has been further erroded by Barack Obama and his Iowa win.

 

Independent voters are the largest voting block here in New Hampshire, and many are still undecided. Barack Obama seems to be winning over the Independents that plan on voting in the Democratic primary (much like in Iowa).  Does this spell bad news for Hillary Clinton?

 

For the Republicans, the numbers look like this:

 

John McCain 33%

Mitt Romney 27%

Rudy Giuliani 14%

Mike Huckabee 11%

Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter 1%

 

Much like Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney has had a lead over most of the summer, although not as large. His loss in Iowa, coupled with a bump for McCain coming out of the Iowa caucuses, has pushed McCain well into the lead.  McCain also started to move up in the polls when he won the endorsement of Joe Lieberman, which seems to have swayed  Independent NH voters that plan on voting in the Republican primary back to John McCain. This could be Mitt Romney's downfall.

 

Undecided, Independent voters are going to be the key to how both primaries turn out. The last poll numbers that I saw had 53% of Independent voters planning on voting in the Democratic primary, which should be good news for Obama and possibly bad news for McCain. With so many undecided voters out there, anything can still happen. Stay tuned, it is going to get interesting.

 

My predictions: I believe that Barack Obama is going to end up winning New Hampshire, riding the Iowa surge to victory, followed by Hillary Clinton. I don't believe John Edwards will end up doing well enough to still be a viable candidate. For the Republicans, I bet that Mitt Romney will hold on and beat John McCain in a close one. I think McCain's immigration policy will eventually be his downfall with Republican voters. My surprise pick: Ron Paul will finish a strong third.  Until McCain surged out of nowhere, I was ready to predict a second place finish for Ron Paul - he seems to have a rather large following here. After Paul will be Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and Duncan Hunter.

 

Check back here for my analysis of the New Hampshire primary results, we'll see how close I am.