How Clinton can still win
Ever since Iowa, it seems like the media has been calling for Sen. Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race. She’s bounced back several times—even after a winless streak in February, only to carry Texas, Rhode Island and Ohio the following month.
Now that the Jeremiah Wright story seems to be fading, the media is back to counting Clinton out. Clinton’s political death is always a good back-up story for the talking heads to dissect ad nauseam.
But in all seriousness, with the apparent Florida and Michigan revote off the table, Clinton’s chances to win the nomination do look limited. In today’s New York Times, Adam Nagourney lays out a way that Clinton can pull an upset. He writes:
“The electorate that matters most now are not the voters waiting to go to the polls in the 10 nominating contests that remain between now and June. Instead, it is the superdelegates, — the elected officials and party leaders who have automatic status as uncommitted delegates and whose votes are needed to put either Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton over the top. There are about 800 of them, and they are going be weighing two main arguments: Mr. Obama’s contention that the Democratic rank-and-file has expressed its will and superdelegates shouldn’t overturn it, and Mrs. Clinton’s brief that she offers the party the best chance to defeat Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican, this fall.”
Superdelegates, though, must be moved by the results of the upcoming contests. Nagourney explains that Clinton has to trounce Obama in Pennsylvania, and then go on to win convincingly in Indiana, a state where the two are evenly matched. I’ve heard the theory that she has to steal a win in North Carolina from Obama, a state where the Illinois senator is expected to win.
Such wins would help Clinton lay the foundation of her argument that Obama can’t win blue-collar voters, a constituency that aides to McCain see very much in play this fall.
Additionally, Mrs. Clinton would get some wind if she swamps Obama in Puerto Rico's primary, proving the point that Latinos prefer her. Nagourney explains why this is important.
“Mr. Obama has had trouble in competing for Latino voters. And that has been duly noted by Mr. McCain’s aides who said they are beginning to see a general election upside — among Hispanic voters in a contest against Mr. Obama — to the problems that Mr. McCain’s support of immigration legislation caused him in the primaries. (That is one reason why the endorsement that Mr. Obama won last week from Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, who is one of the country’s leading elected Hispanic officials, had significance going far beyond the Democratic nominating contest).”
If Clinton can pull this off, it’s still not a lock. Nagourney thinks that Obama will have to face a political collapse in the polls. He points to the Jeremiah Wright situation which rattled Obama’s candidacy, despite the race speech he gave last week.
Personally, I think Clinton should keep going. She has a chance, albeit a small one, but she isn’t pulling a Huckabee by staying in the race. Neither Obama nor Clinton will reach the magic number of 2,025 delegates. It makes me cringe when Obama supporters, pundits and strategists call for Hillary Clinton to drop out. Her candidacy isn’t simply another Clinton term, as Gov. Bill Richardson suggested this weekend. Clinton is the first viable female candidate, who has a chance to become president of the United States. After all, if Clinton were to drop out tomorrow what would columnists like Maureen Dowd have to complain about?
