Both Dems virtually tied with McCain
Here's a look at over 19,000 responses from Gallup, which yielded some expected, yet interesting, demographic results. From the Baltimore Sun:
Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are virtually tied with Republican John McCain in national daily tracking polls that Gallup has been running, but an analysis of nearly 20,000 interviews conducted over the course of the month of March reveals the strengths that each holds among different voters.
“At this point….there would appear not to be a major difference in the overall strength that either Democratic candidate would bring to bear in the general election against McCain,’’ Gallup’s Frank Newport reports. “But...the way in which the two Democratic candidates arrive at that parity with McCain is quite different.’’
Obama fares better than Clinton among independent voters and Republicans, for instance, while Clinton fares better among white voters in general and Obama stronger among black voters.
Gallup looked at 19,076 interviews conducted between March 7 and 29, which makes for an exceptionally small possible margin of error, plus or minus one percentage point.
Both of the Democrats fare best among liberal Democrats, and “progressively worse among moderate Democrats, conservative Democrats, "pure" independents (who do not lean toward one party or the other), and moderate/liberal Republicans,’’ Newport, Gallup’s editor-in-chief, notes. “ They do worst among conservative Republicans.’’
Obama’s advantage over McCain among non-Hispanic black registered voters is 85 points, while Clinton's margin is 69 points. “In other words, while both Democrats dominate McCain among black voters, Obama has a significantly larger margin over McCain than does Clinton. (It appears that black voters are less likely to say they would vote for Clinton against McCain and more likely to say they don't have a preference between the two.)’’
Clinton fares slightly better than Obama against McCain among Hispanic voters.
“In general, Clinton does better among…. white Democrats against McCain than does Obama,’’ Newport writes. “The difference between Obama and Clinton is largest among conservative white Democrats. In fact, among this group, Obama manages to get only 50 percent of the vote to McCain's 35 percent, while Clinton wins by a much larger 68 to 25 percent margin.
“Obama makes up for this, however, with a stronger relative performance among independents and Republicans,’’ Newport notes. “While McCain outpolls both Clinton and Obama among "pure independents," Obama is somewhat more competitive with him among this group (trailing by 22 points, compared with 32 points for Clinton).
“McCain, of course, beats both candidates by significant margins among the two groups of Republicans used in this analysis. But again, Clinton loses by slightly larger margins than does Obama.
“At this point in the election cycle, there are more Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents than there are Republicans and Republican-leaning independents,’’ Newport says in summary. ‘McCain has been able to hold his own against the two Democratic candidates in the general election trial heat ballots in the face of this disparity mostly because he does very well among conservative Republicans and wins among independents.’’
Political Advice for John McCain. How to cut into Obama’s vote!
The TV and radio political talking heads aren’t saying “Its McCain’s race too lose” anymore, the media has taken on a resolve that the world loves Obama. However, the election has just begun to unfold and McCain can lose this one if he sleeps too long.
Beginning now and until September 15th, the McCain for President Campaign should concentrate their electioneering efforts directly at the core of the African American communities around the nation using Direct Mail and Literature Door Drops tactics. This strategy is to create a Foot Print of Exposure in these communities just enough to let them know that you (the McCain for President Campaign) cares about and want their votes.
McCain should make bold fairly short appearances at NOT necessarily Black church activities, gatherings or even the local Black businesses. These appearances should include plenty of hand shaking and literature distribution that suggests more attention to the Black Senior Citizen voters. This relatively inexpensive political tactic will yield the following results based on the context of this 2008 presidential election.
The expected results will be:
The McCain for President Campaign-simply directing it’s focused attention on the African American communities for the next two and a half months; by this action alone it will dislodge some Black voters from Obama or at the very least it would pierce the mystic around his campaign. This will also set Obama up for the paid political attacks by the 527 Groups that could begin around September 1st. Political campaigns should not ignore the fact that African Americans are just normal Americans and they do not all vote in Lock Step and they do not all attend church but they all like political attention.
McCain’s un-bashful campaigning in these communities will be received as somewhat of an oddity but they will be excitingly remembered by these voters. Black voters just like all voters, like to feel a sense of “Familiarity” with their political leaders. Campaigning in these communities now will eliminate the possibility of appearing self serving later. A John McCain visit to a local Black business will have the effect of a “$10,000 Perceived Line of Credit Influence” to the business owner and great advertising for that business.
By distributing political literature that suggests more attention to the Black Senior Citizen voters, this will create a “Buzz” in that demographic and could bring into question Obama’s attention to the welfare this large, loyal and mostly overlooked consistent voter. This strategy will also give McCain greater creditably with this group when his campaign has to use negative advertising on Obama.
After September 15th, McCain should then work to energize and prepare to turn out his Republican Party base by using a central political message based on “Ideology” alone. In addition, his Republican Party voter base will not hold it against McCain for campaigning in the Black community first. They will tend to admire his spunk and of course they know what it takes to win elections.
Frank Bellamy, MAP
Masters of Applied Politics
imailisbest@sbcglobal.net
Successful Obama visit to Iraq could doom McCain in November
This 2008 Presidential Election campaign has the momentum that points in favor of Senator Obama. However, Senator McCain is not missing any opportunities to point out the flaws and policy short comings of the Obama campaign.
The more educated voters who understand that our government is comprised of a three branch governance system are becoming more resolved in their thinking that an Obama presidency will have its limitations on their daily lives. So the fear of Senator Obama’s inexperience in becoming the leader of the free world is relaxed even thought our nation is at war.
The one thing that may result in a large number of “Conservative, Moderate and Undecided Voters” to lean towards Senator Obama is; If he has a successful and safe visit to the Iraq war zone. This type of visit will negate the McCain impression of being stronger militarily in the minds of the disinterested voters who will definitely show up at the polls in November.
If Senator Obama pulls off a successful Iraq visit before Senator McCain and the Republication Party can implement their negative (paid) media framing plan, Obama will inherit the shield of a “Political Teflon Coating” and all attacks after that will have no affect on him.
What do you think?
Frank Bellamy, MAP
Masters of Applied Politics
imailisbest@sbcglobal.net
The McCain campaign is giving their votes away to Obama by not being more aggressive?
The McCain’s campaign “Come back line”; for Obama’s up coming Iraq visit; McCain says something referencing 900 Days in his TV Ad? This line gives the listener the impression that Obama has visited the Middle East before in his official capacity. This also diminishes McCain’s strength in the international affairs arena.
The McCain Campaign Team must take on a much harder more aggressive in your face type of political campaigning posture. They must campaign with the intent to draw political blood, because at the present campaign pace the voters will not have time to self persuade a reason why they should vote for McCain. Presently the campaign is giving their votes away to Obama by not being more aggressive. Voter self persuasion happens in most all major elections because of the voter’s fear of deviating from the (the known) status quo of political leadership into unknown.
In order to shake a guy like Obama, you must campaign on his turf and flex your muscles by being bold in your conduct. This will act to demoralize him and force him to go on the defense.
What do you think?
Frank Bellamy, MAP
Master of Applied Politics
imailisbest@sbcglobal.net
John McCain its GOTV Time! “Get-Out-The Vote” The Polls say “Yes”!
In most elections it would be considered far too early in the election to implement the campaign’s GOTV Plan but with this political climate the timing is ripe for McCain. Most recent public opinion polls are beginning to hint that voters are starting to lean away from the hype and attraction of the Obama for President Campaign. It is not that the voters are rejecting Senator Obama but instead the McCain Campaign has successfully created a reason for voter doubt and apprehension about Obama. The McCain Campaign has become very aggressive in their attempt to label and politically define Sen. Obama in ways that are comical and believable.
The typical Republican Party or Conservative voter has not previously shown signs of being self motivated about the candidacy of Sen. McCain as president. (A Self Motivated Voter will turn out on Election Day without being asked to do so by the campaign.) This campaign factor of having your constituency energized to the point of being “Self Motivated” is one of the primary necessities in winning elections, not to mention that it also saves the campaign money, big money! The McCain campaign’s political aggressiveness is the shot in the arm that the Conservatives needed in this presidential election.
The public opinion polls are now indicating that the voters are not painting John McCain with the broad brush of anti Republican Party sentiment. The voters could have been looking for a reason to formulate a since of skepticism about Sen. Obama and the McCain political team is working hard to accomplish that.
The GOTV “Get-Out-The Vote” plan is purely a Grassroots level type of operation but in order for the McCain Campaign to take full advantage of this, they will have to do much of the grunt work themselves. In that I’m not being paid by either campaign, I will not give the “How To” details for this specific GOTV effort in fairness to Sen. Obama’s campaign. Good luck to both candidates.
Frank Bellamy, MAP
Master of Applied Politics
imailisbest@sbcglobal.net
Obama and McCain’s 2008 Secret Campaign Weapons? Libertarian Party Bob Barr – Green Party Cynthia McKinney
In past presidential elections only two third party candidates have been able to break through the campaign noise at the national level; Ralph Nader and Ross Perot. Both of these third party candidates were also able to have an affect on the outcome of the national election ever though they did not win.
The Libertarian Party’s Bob Barr and Green Party’s Cynthia McKinney presidential candidates are much more sophisticated than the third party candidates of the past. These political campaigns seem to understand modern or new style electioneering practices. These third party presidential candidates will have an effect on the outcome of our national election and that outcome could be orchestrated in the benefit to Obama or McCain.
The old mental image of the “Smoke filled rooms and back door political dealings” could be useful to the political operatives of Obama and McCain who are focused on winning the election. The political operatives that could understand the need to redirect political money in order to weaken their primary opponent will be the victor and dramatically impact this election.
For example;
If the McCain political operatives could assist in getting Cynthia McKinney’s presidential campaign message and image to the voters it will have two important effects in diverting votes away from Sen. Obama. 1. Some Black voters and cynical voters will see her candidacy as an opportunity to voice their displeasure with mainstream politics. 2. The White voters will view McKinney in a more stereotypical model (because of her appearance and past antics) and thus increase their apprehension of voting for Obama.
If the Obama political operatives could assist in getting Bob Barr’s presidential campaign message and image to the voters it will also have an important effect in diverting votes away from Sen. McCain. It is common knowledge that many Republican Party hardliners are not excited about the candidacy of McCain for president and Barr could be an acceptable alternative for these voters who want their strong conservative values protected. (Bob Barr represented Georgia's 7th congressional district as a Republican from 1995 to 2003)
Many public opinion polls have the Obama/McCain presidential election in a statistical tie because their poll rankings fall within or very close to the margin of error for surveys of this type. The smallest of political impact by either campaign could be that one straw that will win the election in my view.
What do you think?
Frank Bellamy, MAP
Master of Applied Politics
imailisbest@sbcglobal.net
Sen. McCain’s Leadership Ability Dominates at Evangelical Church Forum!
The conventional Media Consultants may have previously advised Sen. McCain to avoid debates with the much younger Sen. Obama. John McCain’s performance at the Saddleback Church forum last Saturday should put to rest any notion that he should avoid Sen. Obama in head to head debates.
While Sen. Obama had his moments of cheers and applauds from the mostly religious crowd, his homey laid back appeal fell short in comparison to McCain’s clear and definite direction for America. Sen. Obama also has a vision for America but his presentation left the observer/voter a bit unsure of his clarity and precision of thought on certain issues important to that particular constituency.
Sen. Obama’s forum performance ended on a high note that has become the hallmark of his campaign. However, Sen. McCain’s performance echoed a certain slap of reality that most Americans could easily understand. The Sunday morning T.V. political talk shows interestingly avoided any direct criticisms of Sen. Obama’s church forum performance. On the T.V. show Face the Nation, Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota was more forth coming in his assessment of Sen. Obama’s performance. Gov. Pawlenty described Obama as being “Conflicting” in his answers at the forum and McCain as being “Decisive and Crisp” in his responses and that assessment is fairly accurate. Meanwhile on the same T.V. show Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana seemed to find it difficult to convincingly defend Sen. Obama’s performance but he did make a valiant attempt to do so.
What should both political campaigns be doing now?
The Obama Campaign should be rigorously rehearsing the use of “Sound Bites” with their candidate. Sound bites are the short issues/media statements that the public will remember long after the comments are made. This would cause Sen. Obama not to drift or ramble in his presentations, thus keeping him on point and presidential in his appearances. This can only be accomplished by strict candidate rehearsals and role playing by the campaign.
The McCain campaign should guard against their candidate having to take long walking approaches to the speaker’s podium in every appearance because a small slip in his footing will send the wrong message to the voters. Additionally, Sen. McCain seemed to have been battling a bout of indigestion during the Saddleback Church forum, so an objective pre-observation of the candidate is in order before all public appearances.
Of course these suggestions are only one or two of the many things that the campaigns must tackle before Election Day.
What do you think?
Frank Bellamy, MAP
Master of Applied Politics
imailisbest@sbcglobal.net
Obama needs Clinton as VP to avoid a John McCain landslide victory in Nov.
To think that Sen. Obama would have a remote chance at winning in the General Election is fool hearty at best. Our nation’s demographics are very vulnerable to TV, Radio and Internet negative messaging and the Republican Party is the best at political messaging.
An Obama/Clinton presidential ticket is the most competitive duo that the Democratic Party could hope for in this election cycle. If they couple anyone else with Obama the 527 Interest Groups will have a clear shot at targeting the flaws of Obama alone. Whereas, with Clinton on the ticket she could easily deflect many of the political attacks, but their ticket could be easily defeated by McCain and just about any Republican running mate.
What do you think?
Frank Bellamy, MAP
Master of Applied Politics
imailisbest@sbcglobal.net
McCain can Win?…Obama can Win?…If they…
1. Obama can Win if he can turn out all of the people in his “Contact List”!
2. McCain can Win if he can energize his “Self Turn Out” base. And if he could cause them to get angry about the Election it will be an easy victory!
This is the best time of the Election because “It’s all Campaign Skill and the Implementation of Political Tactics”.
What do you think?
Frank Bellamy, MAP
Master of Applied Politics
imailisbest@sbcglobal.net
http://www.myspace.com/bellamypolitician