What does early reporting on tonight's primaries tell us?

POSTED BY Alexandra Steigrad, 06 May 2008

Something big could happen tonight to change the course of the Democratic nomination, but the feeling that's in the air is most likely just that--a feeling. After a long back-and-forth in the primary battle, I am more inclined to believe that many are feeling anxiety/anticipation rather than an actual game-changing moment. We all want to know when this thing is going to break. Is Hillary going to really shift the momentum in this race? Can Obama close the deal and sew this thing up?

After having read 3 contradicting articles in a row about what early voting in N.C. and Indiana could mean, I'm more resigned to the idea that not too much is going to change after tonight. Margins of victory and parsing each constituency will probably be tonigh's excitement. Why? Well, The New Republic is running an election preview that shows Obama raking in early votes in NC due mainly to African-American voting.They also cite a SurveyUSA poll that breaks down the voting as follows:

This just-released SurveyUSA poll puts early voters at about one-quarter of the total in North Carolina. The early voters prefer Obama by a 57-41 margin. For what it's worth, Indiana also does early voting, but it's a much, much smaller share of the likely electorate. (Only about 3 percent according to SurveyUSA.)

That doesn't seem quite as high as the media was projecting earlier, although it's still very solid. At the same time, TNR has an article on Clinton's NC co-chair, Ace Smith, whose silver bullet is early voting and unearthing the vote in rural communities. From that info., I'd expect Clinton to get a decent chunk of the early vote and/or reap some good margins in those rural counties. Furthermore, that TNR election preview also sites the final Zogby poll that projects a huge 14-point margin of victory in NC for Obama, but the New York Observer reports that a 15-point trouncing in NC probably won't happen. It appears that the big Drudge headline that Obama was going to win by 15 in NC this morning, may have been manufactured by the Clinton camp to lower expectations. NY Observer:

The Obama campaign couldn't have been thrilled with Drudge's expectation-warping headline this morning: "DANGER DAY: HILLARY FACES '15-POINT DEFEAT' IN NC." I asked Obama spokesperson Jen Psaki about the report, which was attributed to a top Clinton campaign staffer. She wouldn't respond directly, but offered this admirable effort at counter-spin:"The Clinton campaign, including their top surrogate Terry McAuliffe and President Clinton, have said that big wins in North Carolina are important for their campaign and we'll take them at their word." Also, this: "If we lived and died by the polls we would have won the nomination and dropped out of the race by now."

So what's this all mean? We'll find out tonight, but one thing is certain: don't buy all the spin. Nobody really knows what will happen, but chances are, not too much is going to change.