Al Sadr positioning himself to rule

POSTED BY Chris Broussard, 30 August 2007

The most prominent insurgent leader in Iraq, the Shiite cleric Muqtada Al Sadr might be shaping up to be his country’s George Washington. He has taken credit for driving the British out of Basra and called for a U.N. peace-keeping presence to ensure Iraq's security until the country can stand on its own. Thursday, he distributed an order to his followers calling for a six-month unilateral ceasefire:

"Asked if the unexpected order meant no attacks on American troops, as well as a ban on Shia infighting, a senior Sadr aide said: 'All kinds of armed actions are to be frozen, without exception.'"

Ostensibly, the hiatus is to restructure the Madhi army "in a way that helps honur the principles for which it is formed."

Sadr stands to consolidate his power by using U.S. troops to eliminate disloyal and competing Shiite factions. Any Shiites who continue insurgent activity are not loyal to Al Sadr and will be the focus of the undivided attention of U.S. and Iraqi forces. On the other side, Al Sadr should emerge with a rested, loyal, well-organized militia.

Al Sadr goes on to call on the Madhi army to work toward stabilizing Iraq. "We call on all Sadrists to observe self-restraint, to help security forces control the situation and arrest the perpetrators and sedition mongers, and urge them to end all forms of armament in the sacred city."

It remains to be seen how his followers implement the order to "help security forces," but it could translate to significant improvements in the security situation. Such an improvement would improve his standing with Iraq citizens. And the reduction in violence would make it easier, politically, for U.S. troops to leave Iraq. Implicit in all this is the message that the Madhi army will be more ready than ever to attack U.S. troops when the six months is up, if U.S. troops are not already on their way out.

There is a leadership void in Iraq. The current Prime Minister is seen as weak and insufficient to the task of governing. To the contrary, Al Sadr is seen among Shiites as an energetic, capable leader. The British leaving Basra has undoubtedly given him a boost in public opinion. His call for an international rather than U.S. security presence demonstrates a realistic understanding of the situation Iraq is in and is really the only proposal on the table aside from continued U.S. occupation or outright chaos.

If he begins making reconciliatory overtures toward the Sunnis in the coming weeks, it will be very clear that Al Sadr is gearing up to take over leadership of the country. In the same way that the U.S. has allied with former-insurgent tribal sheiks in Anbar province, in a year's time, we might well find ourselves handing over the keys to the country to its most significant insurgent leader.